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K-12 Budgets in 2024: Key Trends and Strategies for Financial Stability

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When I first reviewed this year’s findings on K-12 budgets, I was pleasantly surprised. Over the past few years, school finance leaders have been navigating budgets in a near-constant state of decline. With ESSER funding now gone, many have been scrambling to close the gap. Yet, this year’s data suggests something unexpected: some districts are finding financial relief. It’s possible that local funding streams, like tax revenues, are increasing, or that district leaders are getting better at adapting to financial uncertainty. Either way, it’s a shift worth paying attention to.

Another encouraging trend is the improvement in budget forecasting. School finance is complex, and uncertainty can be one of the biggest obstacles to long-term planning. The more confidence finance leaders have in their projections, the better positioned they are to make strategic decisions. The report shows that districts relying on analytics tools tend to have the most confidence in their numbers, which isn’t surprising. Better data leads to better predictions. Still, many leaders continue to rely on intuition. While experience is valuable, this raises an important question: Are we fully leveraging the technology available to strengthen financial decision-making?

Technology budgeting, in particular, stood out as an area of growing concern. Many districts used ESSER funds to expand one-to-one device programs, but sustaining those programs is another challenge altogether. Chromebooks and other student devices have a short lifecycle, and once a program like this is in place, schools can’t simply scale it back without impacting students. The reality is that technology is now a permanent part of K-12 education, and budgeting for it requires a long-term strategy.

Cybersecurity is another pressing issue. School districts are facing increasing threats, from ransomware attacks to data breaches, and in many cases, they’re being asked to meet new security requirements without additional funding. District leaders are being forced to make tough choices, balancing immediate financial needs with long-term security investments.

While this report highlights some areas of financial stabilization, it also reinforces the need for proactive financial planning. The districts that are refining their forecasting strategies, benchmarking against peers, and leveraging analytics tools seem to have a clearer picture of their financial future. As you read through the findings, I encourage you to think about where your district stands, and where opportunities may exist to strengthen your financial planning for the years ahead.

Dan Terrell
Solutions Director, Frontline Education

We asked K-12 finance leaders how they’re managing budget fluctuations, improving forecasting accuracy, and making spending decisions. With two years of data, we can now see where financial stability is improving, where districts continue to face constraints, and what strategies are leading to better outcomes.

Key Questions This Section Explores:

  • How has legislation impacted school funding in the past year?
  • How confident are district finance leaders in their financial forecasting?
  • What strategies are helping districts improve financial decision-making?

How has legislation impacted school funding in the past year?

Most Districts Are Still Seeing Funding Decreases

The share of districts reporting significant funding decreases fell from 45% in 2023 to 35% in 2024 — a sign that some may be finding financial relief. At the same time, more districts reported funding increases (28%, up from 24% last year), while those seeing no change dropped from 31% to 18%. 

The takeaway? Some districts are seeing an uptick in funding, but the majority are still working with less. This reality makes it even more critical for school business leaders to refine their financial planning strategies and ensure every dollar is optimized for maximum impact.

Impact of Legislation on Available Funding

“Decreases in enrollment and attendance have led to the reduction of hourly staff hours and ancillary programs, such as designated Library and Technology teachers.”

How confident are district finance leaders in their financial forecasting?

Budget Forecasting is Improving

One encouraging trend is the growing confidence in budget projections.

  • 63%: The share of district finance leaders who perceived their budget projections as “very” or “fairly” accurate in 2024.
  • 78%: The share of district finance leaders who reported the same in 2025.

Meanwhile, fewer districts reported uncertainty. Only 8% described their projections as “slightly accurate” or worse, down from 12% last year.

The takeaway: Despite funding fluctuations, districts are refining their planning strategies. Whether through better data, more conservative forecasting, or lessons learned from the past few years, school business leaders are navigating uncertainty with greater precision.

Perceived Accuracy of Budget Predictions

What strategies are helping districts improve financial decision-making?

Stronger Forecasts Start with Analytics, Not Guesswork

Districts that rely on analytics software for financial decision-making report the highest confidence in their forecasts:

  • 93% of those who primarily use analytics software to inform financial decisions say that their budget projections are very or fairly accurate.
  • 79% of those who primarily depend on manual data analysis report very or fairly accurate budget projections.
  • 76% of those who primarily rely on intuition say their budget projections are very or fairly accurate.

The takeaway: Access to the right tools matters. As budgets tighten, the districts investing in analytics seem to have a clearer picture of their financial future.


Percentage Who Perceived Budget Projections as Very or Fairly Accurate by Data Source They Primarily Use for Financial Decision-Making

The Persistent Role of Intuition in K-12 Financial Decision-Making

Despite the growing availability of data tools and the boost in financial planning confidence they provide, most district leaders still rely on intuition and experience when making financial decisions.

  • 60% selected intuition as a primary source for financial decision-making.
  • 48% selected manual data analysis as a primary decision-making source.
  • 48% selected analytics software as a primary source.

The takeaway: While data-driven approaches are gaining traction, this reliance on

intuition suggests that many districts don’t have access to the right tools. Industry reports (34%) and external consultancies (31%) ranked even lower, indicating that school finance leaders prefer to lean on internal expertise rather than outside perspectives.

Percentage Who Selected Each as a Primary Source for Data-Driven Decisions

Benchmarking for Better Financial Forecasting

Districts that compare their staffing and spending data to peer districts gain a financial advantage. Those that benchmark more frequently perceive their financial forecasts as significantly more accurate.

  • 75% of districts that benchmarked daily reported that their financial forecasts were very accurate.
  • Accuracy dropped for districts that benchmarked less frequently (see below).
Percentage Who Perceived Budget Predictions as Very or Fairly Accurate by Frequency of Peer Benchmarking

The Power of Location Data in Financial Planning

Similarly, districts that incorporate location data (analyzing population and demographic trends) are better equipped to predict financial needs.

  • 60% of districts that use location-based insights daily also reported that their financial forecasts were very accurate.

The takeaway: Predicting shifts in student enrollment and community demographics helps districts plan for staffing, resource allocation, and funding decisions.

Percentage Who Perceived Budget Predictions as Very or Fairy Accurate by Frequency of Location Data Analysis

From Data to Action: Key Steps for Strengthening Financial Decision-Making in 2025

As districts continue to navigate funding uncertainties and evolving financial strategies, successful school business leaders are adopting proactive approaches to budgeting, forecasting, and resource management. Based on trends from district leaders, here are five key actions to drive financial stability in 2025:

  1. Leverage Analytics to Strengthen Budget Forecasting: Districts that rely on analytics software report the highest confidence in their financial projections, with 93% saying their budgets are very or fairly accurate. Investing in data-driven decision-making tools can reduce uncertainty and improve long-term planning.
  2. Prioritize Benchmarking for More Accurate Financial Projections: Districts that compare their staffing and spending data to peers more frequently report significantly higher forecasting accuracy: 75% of those benchmarking daily say their projections are very accurate. Regular benchmarking helps finance leaders set realistic expectations and optimize resource allocation.
  3. Use Location Data to Improve Financial Planning: With enrollment trends shifting, location-based insights help districts anticipate future financial needs. 60% of districts using daily location data analysis reported highly accurate financial forecasts. Understanding population and demographic changes ensures better planning for staffing, resource distribution, and funding requests.
  4. Reduce Reliance on Intuition by Expanding Data-Driven Approaches: Despite advances in financial analytics, 60% of district leaders still primarily rely on intuition when making financial decisions. While experience remains valuable, combining it with real-time financial data, trend analysis, and predictive modeling can lead to more precise, informed decision-making.

Learn how Frontline helps with budget management and financial planning.

Frontline Business Analytics