Chapter 2 – Sustainable School Budgeting and Financial Resilience

By the Numbers: Key K-12 Finance Statistics 

Source: 2025 K–12 Lens Report 

Strained Budgets But Stronger Forecasts: How Are School Business Leaders Building Confidence in Uncertain Times? 

In the face of rising salaries, ever-growing special education costs, declining enrollment, and aging devices that have become essential to teaching and learning, most district finance leaders still report strong confidence in their financial forecasts.  

Frontline Education’s latest K-12 Lens Report, based on a survey of nearly 800 administrators, shows that budget forecast accuracy jumped about 15 percentage points from the year before. At first glance, it may not seem to add up. But consider the rapid changes of the past few years and the hard-learned lessons along the way: expect the unexpected, plan for the worst, document everything, and share openly with stakeholders so they understand the plan, the variables, and their impacts. 

With the right tools, district finance leaders are finding calm in another period of fiscal volatility. But with so many solutions available, it can be difficult to know which ones truly improve efficiency, reduce friction, and build community trust, even when the numbers fall short of expectations. 

That’s where the right tools come in. Keep reading to explore the tools that finance leaders trust to strengthen forecasts and steer their districts through today’s financial uncertainty.  

The Challenge: Shrinking Funds and Rising Costs in Schools 

Expiring relief funds and deficits. The federal relief money that propped districts up during the pandemic is gone. Though never meant to be permanent, many districts used it for recurring expenses like salaries, programs, and technology. The costs remain, but the funding does not.  

The impact is already clear. Districts nationwide are reporting double-digit deficits this year. In Texas, a TASBO survey of 190 districts, representing nearly half of the state’s enrollment, found that 42% closed FY2024 with a deficit. Looking ahead, nearly two-thirds anticipate ending FY2025 in the red, and almost half expect significant cuts in FY2026. 

These weren’t one-time windfalls; they became lifelines woven into everyday operations. Now that lifeline is gone. And while careful planning can soften the blow, structural deficits require structural changes.  

Enrollment decline and facility impact. Since 2019, public schools have lost about 1.2 million students, and the state funding tied to them. Costs, however, don’t shrink as quickly. In one Colorado district, enrollment dropped 10% over a decade while expenses rose nearly 60%. The board eventually voted to close 16 elementary schools. Nobody wanted to, but the numbers forced the decision. 

Special Education and Other Rising Costs. Special education is one driver. A decade ago, 13% of students had an IEP. Today it’s 15 percent, or 7.5 million children nationwide. Supports are essential and legally required, but the average cost per student can exceed $30,000. 

Technology adds another layer. The Chromebooks bought in 2020 are nearing the end of their lifecycle, replacement costs are looming, and expenses for software and cybersecurity continue to rise.  

Meanwhile, cyberattacks are escalating. In 2023, schools suffered a record 121 ransomware incidents, with recovery costs averaging $500,000 per day of downtime. Even mid-sized districts reported losses in the millions. 

Too much guesswork. Despite these pressures, many districts still build budgets on experience and gut instinct. According to the K-12 Lens, only 76% of leaders relying on intuition reported highly accurate forecasts, compared to 93% of those using analytics software. That gap isn’t just statistical. It shows up in board meetings, community hearings, and public trust.  

The Opportunity: Software that Supports Financial Resilience

District finances rarely break in one place. They fray at the edges. Forecasts drift. Enrollment shifts chip away at revenue. Devices disappear. Board members ask questions that require data from three systems, stitched together by hand. 

There is no silver bullet, but analytics paired with asset management can steady the ground. Together, they give leaders accuracy, visibility, and a stronger story to tell.  

Forecast with confidence. Budgets stop feeling like guesses when leaders can test multiple futures. 

• Build scenarios with percent changes, one-time events, or recurring adjustments. 
• Plug in shifts like enrollment or salaries and see ripple effects instantly.  
• Compare scenarios side by side and stress-test assumptions. 
• Spot gaps between budgeted and actuals, then adjust on the fly. 

Forecasting becomes a living process that adapts as conditions change. 

Show the story behind the numbers. Communities want more than figures. They want reasons. 

• Share dashboards or reports directly to your website.  
• Package data into simple, topic-driven presentations.  
• Break down cost-per-student into daily costs, revenue sources, and classroom vs. non-classroom investments.  
• Benchmark with peer groups, then export polished reports in PDF or PowerPoint. 

Clarity builds trust, even when people disagree with the outcome.  

Control your assets. districts own more than they can track – laptops, assistive technology, cafeteria freezers, CTE equipment. Without a system, things get lost, unnecessarily replaced, or flagged in audits.   

• Barcode-scan assets in and out, with digital receipts. 
• Track fees for lost or damaged items with payment reconciliation. 
• Run quick audits with mobile scanners for full audit trails.  
• Create custom fields, track funding sources, and prevent duplicate purchases.  

Real-time visibility reduces losses, cuts replacements, and makes compliance routine.  

Plan for the long game. Financial resilience means looking beyond this year’s deficit to see how today’s decisions ripple into tomorrow.  

• Project enrollment by grade level, using cohort survival rates, local birth data, and historical trends. 
• Model capture rates and school leavers to anticipate funding shifts. 
• Measure the cost of empty seats and test consolidation scenarios early. 
• Align staffing, facilities, and spending to the student population you’ll actually have. 

The long view gives leaders breathing room. Leaders act early, aligning people and dollars to the future. 

Bringing it together. Analytics clarify the numbers. Asset management keeps resources visible and accountable. Together, they deliver accuracy, control, and a financial story that holds up.   

What Leaders Gain from the Right Tools

Proof in Action

The Financial Resilience Checklist for School Leaders 

Resilience comes from clarity, not guesswork. Ask these questions to reveal strengths, spot risks, and test whether your district is truly prepared for what’s ahead. 

Forecast Accuracy.  

Enrollment Projections.

Asset Visibility and Accountability.

Facility Utilization.

Special Education Share of Budget.

Transparency and Trust.

Peer Benchmarks.

Handy Formulas