Understanding the U.S. Teacher Shortage: A Regional Analysis

Could this mean that the teacher shortage is finally easing up? Maybe. But keep in mind – that stat reflects how district leaders perceive their local labor markets.

That’s why this report goes deeper. We blend what district leaders are feeling with hard data. Drawing from Frontline’s Recruiting & Hiring platform, we analyze job posting trends and the applicant volume over time.

Spoiler alert: fewer job postings and more applicants could mean that the K-12 job market is stabilizing.

Read on for a closer look at what’s happening nationally and in your region. And remember: while trends are useful, your district’s own data is your best guide for making smart staffing decisions and staying ahead of future gaps.

The National K-12 Labor Market

What K-12 Leaders Are Seeing

For the past two years, we asked hundreds of K-12 administrators, across districts of all sizes and in nearly every state, to share their perspective on staffing. Here’s what they told us:

Are you currently experiencing a teacher shortage in your district?

How have recruiting & hiring changed from the last school year to the present?

Approximately what percentage of teachers employed by your district last year have continued to teach in your district this school year?

At a glance, this data suggests that, although challenges persist, many K-12 leaders are feeling a bit more optimistic about the state of staffing. And as we continue to put distance between today’s classrooms and the peak demands of pandemic-era remote learning, that optimism may be warranted.

But here’s the big question: Does this data reflect real improvement – or just shifting perceptions?

Let’s dig in.

What the Data Shows

To get a clearer picture of the K-12 labor market, we focus on two key indicators:

• Job Postings

  An increase in job postings over time often points to growing vacancies – whether from enrollment growth, retirements, resignations, or other forms of attrition. Simply put: more postings signal rising demand for educators.

• Applicants Per Posting

  This serves as a proxy for candidate supply. The more applicants per position, the more options districts have – and the better their chances of filling open roles. When this number goes up over time, it suggests that the teacher shortage may be easing.

Together, these metrics help us understand whether the supply of educators is starting to catch up with the ongoing demand, and if districts are seeing some relief in the hiring landscape.

The demand for K-12 educators surged nationwide after the pandemic, but the trend is shifting.

From 2020 to 2022, K-12 job postings skyrocketed, rising from just under 74,000 in 2020 to nearly 116,000 in 2022. That’s a 57% increase in just two years.

One likely factor? The influx of funding from federal relief programs like ESSER. Many districts used that temporary funding to expand staffing, from academic interventionists to mental health professionals, which may have driven the sharp rise in demand.

2022 marked the peak. Since then, postings have declined each year, dropping to about 105,000 in 2023 and just under 85,000 in 2024.

While the drop is notable, current demand is still above 2020 levels and only slightly above pre-pandemic numbers from 2019.

The takeaway? National demand may be cooling, but it remains elevated compared to earlier years, signaling a possible return to a more stable hiring environment.

Job Postings From A Sample of 1,000 Districts, Nationwide 2019-2024

Candidate supply is up in recent years, but still not back to pre-pandemic highs.

Back in 2019 there were about 13.2 applicants for every K-12 job posting. That number dropped each year, hitting a low of just 8.9 in 2022, likely caused by the increase in demand at that time and other market factors.

Since then, we’ve seen a steady rebound:

• 9.6 applicants per posting in 2023
• 10.6 in 2024

It’s a promising trend, but even with the recent increases, applicant volume hasn’t yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.

Bottom line: while more candidates are applying per job than in the last couple of years, competition for talent remains tighter than it was before 2020.

Applications Per Posting 2019-2024

Regional Differences in K-12 Staffing

National trends tell one story, but the staffing picture can look very different depending on where your district is located. That’s especially true when it comes to demand for educators and the availability of qualified applicants.

In the graph below, you’ll see how the number of job postings – a proxy for demand – have shifted across regions from 2019 to 2024. The Southeast and South saw the most dramatic spikes in demand, especially during the height of ESSER-driven hiring in 2022. In contrast, the Northeast, Central, and Mid Atlantic regions experienced more moderate fluctuations.

Regional Comparison of the Average Number of Job Postings Per District (Demand) Over Time

Next, take a look at applicants per job posting, a useful measure of educator supply. Once again, the Southeast stands out, with the lowest applicant volume per posting, year after year. Meanwhile, the Northeast and the South continue to attract more candidates per role, potentially giving districts in those areas more hiring flexibility.

Regional Comparison of the Average Number of Applicants Per Posting (Supply) Over Time

While the national trend suggests that demand is easing and applicant supply is rebounding, these regional differences underscore why a one-size-fits-all approach to staffing won’t work. Each region, and even each district, faces its own realities.

Want a deeper look at your region?

Download our regional staffing guides to explore side-by-side data on:

• How district leaders in your area perceive staffing conditions
• What the hard data from Frontline’s Recruiting & Hiring solution reveal about supply and demand

These focused snapshots can help you benchmark your district against nearby peers and make more confident, data-informed staffing decisions.

The reality is your district’s data likely doesn’t align perfectly with national or state trends. You have to dig into what your district’s data says.”

Keegan Bassett

HR Director, Queen Creek Unified School District

Read the Case Study

What Districts Can Do to Strengthen the Educator Workforce

The teacher shortage isn’t a single, uniform issue – it’s a regional and local challenge shaped by turnover, pipeline strength, and perception. While some areas are seeing promising signs of recovery – like rising applicant numbers and strong retention – others continue to feel the strain. The good news? Districts that take a proactive, strategic approach to staffing are seeing better outcomes.

Here’s how to move beyond maintaining the status quo:

Use Data to Drive Smart, Localized Decisions

• Know Your Labor Market

  • Track job posting trends and applicants per posting to assess demand and supply over time.
  • Compare internal data with regional benchmarks to identify whether your staffing challenges are isolated or part of a broader trend.

• Time and Target Your Recruitment

  • Use data to identify when and where applicant pools are strongest – and adjust your outreach accordingly.
  • Align recruiting with upcoming staffing needs, not just current vacancies.

Strengthen Your District’s Brand

• Be the District People Want to Work For

  • Elevate what makes your district stand out – strong support systems, innovative practices, a close-knit culture – and tell that story across job boards, social media, and community channels.
  • Candidates want to feel connected to the mission. Make your brand authentic, visible, and values-driven.

Focus on Long-Term Retention – Starting with Recruitment

• Hire for Fit, Not Just for Credentials

  • Look beyond certifications. Prioritize alignment with district culture, openness to growth, and long-term commitment.

• Start Retention Before Day One

  • Implement structured onboarding, mentorship, and early-career supports that build belonging and confidence early.

Make Professional Growth a Reason to Stay

• Link Evaluation to Development

  • Make evaluations meaningful by connecting them directly to growth plans and support opportunities.

• Invest in High-Impact PD

  • Prioritize coaching, peer learning, and leadership pathways. These not only improve instructional quality – they also signal investment in your people.

Align HR Strategy with Instructional Priorities

• Break Down Silos

  • Encourage close collaboration between HR, academic leadership, and school administrators. Align hiring, onboarding, and PD with the district’s instructional vision and teacher needs.

Final Thought

The districts seeing progress are the ones treating staffing as a strategic, system-wide priority – not just an HR function. Whether you’re seeing improved applicant pools like in the Southeast, or facing urban retention challenges like in the Mid-Atlantic, the path forward is the same: Lead with data, brand your strengths, and invest in your people.

With the right strategies in place, every district can begin to build a stronger, more stable educator workforce – one aligned to local needs and ready to support student success.