Talk Data to Me: The State of the Instructional Teacher Shortage
6min. read
The Frontline Research and Learning Institute recently published a research brief called “The State of the Instructional Teacher Shortage”.
Following a basic supply and demand economic model, the analysis investigates the quantity of candidates applying for jobs (supply) as well as the availability of open positions (demand). Trends show changes to both sides of the equation over the past few years that are contributing to a labor shortage, however the decline in candidates is more pronounced than the increase in available jobs.
In this post, we’ll dive into updated numbers surrounding the teacher shortage as well as various strategies and tools districts can implement to quickly fill open positions.
The Teacher Shortage
The Frontline Research and Learning Institute recently published a research brief called “The State of the Instructional Teacher Shortage”. Following a basic supply and demand economic model, the analysis investigates the quantity of candidates applying for jobs (supply) as well as the availability of open positions (demand). Trends show changes to both sides of the equation over the past few years that are contributing to a labor shortage, however the decline in candidates is more pronounced than the increase in available jobs.
The supply side
The quantity of candidates applying to jobs and is measured as the average number of applications per teacher job posting.
The demand side
The availability of open job postings and is measured as the average number of teacher job postings per district.
With a nationally representative data set of over 1,400 school districts from January 2019 to July 2022, the Frontline Research and Learning Institute reported that supply, rather than demand, is the primary contributor to the national teacher shortage.
In this post, we’ll go over the updated supply and demand metrics from a similar nationally representative sample of over 1000 school districts nationwide.
Check out the video now for the most recent numbers
What do the most recent numbers say?
The demand side
Below is a chart of the average number of new job postings per district each month over the past four years. It’s interesting to note that this metric hardly deviates from itself year over year (aside from a slight bump in the first half of 2022).
What does this mean? Districts that are hiring are seeking to fill approximately the same number of jobs than they typically do.
Chart 1
The supply side
Chart 2 shows the average number of applicants per job posting each month over the past four years. As you can see, this metric has decreased dramatically and steadily year over year.
Postings that went live in the last quarter of 2022 are seeing about 50% less applicants than postings that went live in the last quarter of 2019.
Chart 2
The main takeaway
Trends show changes to both sides of the equation over the past few years that are contributing to a labor shortage, however the decline in candidates is more pronounced than the increase in available jobs.
The conclusion the resulting shortage is primarily a result of fewer individuals looking to fill positions.
Your action items
It’s clear that many of today’s K-12 district leaders are finding themselves struggling to recruit and hire enough qualified teachers to meet school demands and serve students.
But you can take a deep breath… because there’s good news!
Up-to-date, data driven insights paired with the latest innovations in EdTech will prepare school leaders with the information and systems they need to attract and retain quality instructional staff to their district.
Check out these top tools designed specifically for K-12:
1. Human Capital Analytics
Get an advantage with data around open positions, applications received, and recruitment efforts and results.
Frontline Human Capital Analytics provides direct access and guided analysis so district administrators can easily explore interactive dashboards, quickly view key metrics, and arrive at data-backed insights to make stronger decisions for their organization.
With your Recruiting & Hiring data, you can:
Analyze open positions to identify patterns or areas of need
Explore trends in the applicants in your district attracts, and how they align with your DEI&B initiatives
Anticipate teacher and support staff shortages and communicate your district’s staffing story to key stake
Note: Human Capital Analytics can also help your district understand staff absences and help to refine and inform your professional development program!
Ready to dodge the teacher shortage and get the right people working in your schools? Check out these resources to get started:
Recruiting the 21st Century Teacher:
Get the rundown of how K-12 HR departments can position themselves for success by diversifying their recruiting efforts.
Grow Your Own Teacher Programs:
GYO programs develop and train future educators from within a school district’s very own classrooms by offering alternative pathways to teacher certification. The exact objective of GYO may vary per state, but these three goals remain consistent: combatting the teacher shortage, expanding the tightening pipeline of new teachers, and diversifying the pool of teacher candidates.
The Guide to Retention-focused Recruitment:
Focusing on retention can help alleviate some of the struggles school districts have recently faced, like dwindling applicant pools and vacant positions that need to be quickly filled with highly qualified 21st century educators. Get this guide for the 4 steps you need for a retention-focused recruiting strategy.
Kevin Agnello
Kevin is a Product Manager of Human Capital Analytics for Frontline Education. He is a former high school mathematics teacher and holds a Master's Degree in Educational Curriculum and Instruction, a Master's Degree in Educational Psychology, and is working on a dissertation toward a Ph.D. in Educational Psychology.
