Mahanoy Area School District

Mahanoy Area Schools form a small K-12 district in Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania. Their many-faceted mission is to provide diverse practical educational opportunities for all students. They strive to enhance each student’s self-esteem and help them develop individual talents and interests. Through collaboration with parents and the community, all students are learning to become productive citizens in an ever-changing, global society.

Over the past ten years, the demographics in the community have changed quite a bit. The district’s business administrator, Jack Hurst, noticed that enrollment numbers had fluctuated in unexpected ways and wanted to identify the source of the shifts in enrollment, a key metric for the district.

The Solution:

A Frontline solution, Comparative Analytics powered by Forecast5, provided some very clear student enrollment data that would shine a light on significant changes in the Mahanoy Area School District. While class sizes had remained relatively stable, the ethnicity and academic needs of students in those classrooms had changed.

Increases in the number of English Language Learners (ELLs) correspond to more diverse student needs and additional resources to support this expanding student population. Changes in the number of students eligible for special education services and the increasing number of special education students identified as category three have resulted in a $1.2 million increase in spending over the last decade.

In addition, the growing number of low-income families meant support services needed to be evaluated to ensure the district was able to provide appropriate resources for these children. Like most school districts in the county, charter school tuition more than doubled from $476,386 to $1,150,726 over the last several years, adding to the burgeoning expenditure budget.

During that time period, the district relied heavily on state and federal dollars to aid in funding the costs linked to these ethnic and need-based demographic shifts.

• 2022 average class size similar to 2010 average
• Significant change in ethnicity: 90% white in 2012, 64% in 2022
• Considerable growth in ELL population: from 7 students in 2014 to 62 in 2022
• Special Education population grew 17% since 2014
• Low-income population grew by 14% since 2014
• Little to no change in total property assessment since 2011
• Consistent number of live births over the past 11 years
• Ratio of enrollment to live births dipped for a few years but rebounded to the average for 2022
• Enrollment projections reflect little or no change in total enrollment