When the Signals Are There, But the System Isn’t: Rebuilding Retention by Connecting What Matters 

A New Inflection Point for K-12 Staffing 

After years of disruption, K-12 staffing is starting to stabilize. According to Frontline’s 2025 K-12 Lens Survey: 

• 66% of district leaders report current staffing shortages (down from 81% the year prior) 
• 46% say recruiting and hiring has become more difficult (down from 66%) 
• 39% say retention has become harder (also down from 66%)  
• The average teacher retention rate has climbed to 78%.   

While the trend is encouraging, it’s hardly a green light to relax.  

Instead, this is a moment to reassess.  

What’s working for teacher retention? Where are staff still stretched too thin? And how can districts create environments that not only attract new teachers but also retain their most experienced ones? 

The New Retention Challenge: No Raises, No Room for Error 

With tighter budgets limiting salary increases and incentives, districts face a pressing challenge: retaining educators without relying on financial levers. But this constraint can be a catalyst. When pay can’t be the differentiator, employee experience has to be.  

That means making teachers’ day-to-day working conditions a priority – scheduling, support, leadership, growth, and culture. The more meaningful the experience, the more likely teachers are to stay.   

Why Reducing Teacher Turnover Must Be a Systemwide Strategy 

Teacher turnover is a staffing disruption that affects everything from instructional quality to student relationships to team dynamics, and even long-term planning. Every resignation reflects a complex decision informed by unmet needs, often left unaddressed for too long. 

But it doesn’t have to be this way. Districts have the data to do something different. And it’s not just about big-picture trends. Subtle, granular signals often appear long before a resignation letter is written.  

Which Data Predicts Teacher Burnout? 

To understand and prevent turnover, districts must focus on the leading cause: burnout.  

Defined as a combination of emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and reduced personal accomplishment (Maslach et al., 1996), burnout isn’t just a feeling. It’s a measurable risk factor. Teachers experiencing sustained burnout are significantly more likely to leave the profession.  

Research highlights three key drivers of teacher burnout:  

1. Student Absenteeism
   A single student absence creates extra work and emotional strain for teachers, who must reteach content, adjust pacing, and provide added support. In today’s era of chronic absenteeism, these disruptions are frequent and compounding, resulting in heightened emotional exhaustion, a key component of burnout (Gottfried, 2019; Maslach et al., 2001; Attendance Works 2018; Garcia & Weiss, 2018).  
2. Classroom Management and Student Behavior
   Managing disruptive behaviors is emotionally taxing and often erodes instructional time. Teachers may feel less effective and more stressed, undermining their motivation and sense of purpose (Skaalvik & Skaalvik, 2017; Aloe et al., 2014; Collie et al., 2012; Dicke et al., 2014; Chiu, 2010). 
3. Student Academic Performance
   When students consistently underperform, teachers often internalize those results. Feelings of inadequacy and frustration, especially in high-stakes testing environments, can lead to burnout and attrition (von der Embse et al., 2016). 

Spotting the Symptoms: Indicators of Teacher Disengagement 

Burnout builds slowly, but its symptoms are often visible. Beyond predictive drivers, there are early signs that suggest a teacher may already be disengaged:  

1. Teacher Absenteeism
   Frequent absences may indicate school avoidance linked to burnout. When a teacher’s leave time exceeds the average, it’s time for a check-in.  
2. Incomplete Professional Development
   When PD modules remain unfinished well past due dates, it can signal disengagement. Teachers who aren’t participating in growth opportunities may be losing connection to their role or the district’s mission.  
3. Teacher Coverage Load
   When teachers are repeatedly asked to give up planning periods or breaks to cover for colleagues, resentment and fatigue can grow. It sends a message that their time and needs are secondary, fueling disengagement.  

Data Isn’t Just Insight – It’s Strategy 

Most districts already collect data on engagement, PD completion, leave patterns, and more. The challenge is integration. When these signals remain siloed, their value is lost. 

Districts with the most successful retention strategies:   

• Use predictive analytics to flag burnout risk, drawing from student attendance, behavior, and academic performance data.  
• Monitor lagging indicators, such as teacher absences and incomplete PD, to identify early signs of disengagement. 
• Connect support to the data, offering mentoring, coaching, or targeted PD based on teacher-level trends.  
• Respond in real time before burnout escalates, rather than relying solely on exit interviews.  

From Signals to Solutions: How Frontline Helps Districts Act on Burnout Risk  

The signs of burnout are often subtle, but when districts can connect the dots early, they have a real opportunity to intervene with support that matters. That’s where tools like Frontline Professional Growth, Absence Management, and Analytics come in. 

Designed specifically for schools, these solutions help leaders bring together the data and supports teachers need to stay engaged and thrive. Instead of reacting to attrition after the fact, districts can build proactive, personalized strategies that prioritize retention from every angle.  

With Frontline’s solutions, districts can: 

• Disaggregate student data by teacher to identify staff at higher risk of burnout and attrition  
• Tailor professional learning to individual needs so teachers at higher risk of burnout receive the support that’s most relevant.  
• Create custom learning paths that reflect school priorities and teacher goals, keeping development connected to what’s happening in classrooms. 
• Track coaching and development over time, ensuring that support isn’t just offered – but followed through. 
• Monitor absences and leave patterns, helping leaders check in on staff who may be showing signs of burnout or school avoidance. 
• Track coverage loads across staff, so no one teacher is routinely asked to give up planning time, preserving prep time and signaling that every teacher’s time matters. 
• Simplify PD tracking and compliance, freeing up time for growth, not paperwork.  

Together, these tools help district leaders see what’s happening and act on it. That’s how retention becomes a systemwide effort, not a last-minute scramble. 

Ready to build a smarter retention strategy? 

Start turning insights into action. See how Frontline helps districts support, develop, and retain the educators who matter most.